California Governor Gavin Newsom, frequently criticized by Republicans over the state’s high taxes and strict COVID-19 measures, has positioned himself as an early favorite among Democrats for the 2028 presidential election, according to recent polls.
A Yahoo News/YouGov survey conducted on September 2 shows Newsom leading the Democratic field with 21% support among registered Democrats. Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance, widely expected to become the Republican nominee, is already assessing ways to capitalize on Newsom’s vulnerabilities in nationwide polling.
The survey also found Vice President Kamala Harris close behind with 19%, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 12%, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 10%. Analysts note that while Newsom leads the early Democratic field, it’s crucial for conservatives to evaluate both his strengths and potential weaknesses heading into 2028.
Despite maintaining a lead in Democratic primary polls over recent months, Newsom’s national approval ratings remain fragile. A September 9 Cygnal survey of 1,500 likely voters reported him with a net approval of -5, with 38% approving and 43% disapproving.
The survey highlighted particular challenges for Newsom among key voter groups in battleground states. His lowest support came from non-college-educated voters, who disapproved of him by a 21-point margin (48% disapprove vs. 27% approve). This gap exceeds Vice President Harris’s 13-point deficit among the same demographic in 2024, reinforcing Democratic concerns about declining support in swing states such as Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, according to the Daily Torch.
Swing voters could present a significant hurdle for Newsom. Another survey shows him trailing by 12 points among this group, with 41% disapproving and only 29% approving of his performance.
Independents and unaffiliated voters narrowly supported Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in 2024 (49% to 46%). Currently, 43% of Americans identify as independents, surpassing both Democrats and Republicans at 28% each. Analysts warn that Newsom’s weak appeal among swing voters could hinder his 2028 prospects as more Americans shift away from the two major parties.
Newsom is also facing challenges with men, particularly college-educated men, who supported Kamala Harris over Trump by just one point in 2024 (49% to 48%). Among this group, Newsom’s disapproval stands at 49% versus 46% approval.Another obstacle for Newsom is winning over highly active voters—those who participated in all four of the most recent major elections. While this group has generally leaned Democratic, Newsom’s support is slightly underwater, with 44% approving and 46% disapproving.
Newsom also encounters skepticism among some Black voters, particularly those who attend religious services regularly. Sixteen percent of Black Democrats who worship monthly or more view him unfavorably, a factor that could influence early primary contests in states like South Carolina, the survey shows.
“The next presidential election is just over three years away, and much can change before then,” the outlet noted, “but early polling highlights Newsom’s vulnerabilities with crucial constituencies, especially non-college voters and independents.”
The Daily Torch added: “If the 2028 election comes down to Gov. Gavin Newsom versus VP JD Vance, Vance may have opportunities to increase support among highly active voters and religious Black voters. While Newsom currently leads the Democratic primary, he faces significant challenges outside the liberal coastal states.”
