New polling by The New York Times and Siena College is good news for former President Donald Trump and is another indication that the early “enthusiasm gap” Vice President Kamala Harris enjoyed has faded.
According to the polling, Trump now leads Harris by five points in Arizona, 50-45 percent, as well as Georgia (49-45 percent) and North Carolina (49-47 percent).
“The polls of these three states, taken from Sept. 17 to 21, presented further evidence that in a sharply divided nation, the presidential contest is shaping up to be one of the tightest in history,” the Times noted, citing the polling data.
Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina are among the seven key battleground states where both the Trump and Harris campaigns have concentrated their efforts since Labor Day. Harris has demonstrated notable strength in several crucial Midwestern states, with Pennsylvania being particularly critical to her presidential aspirations, the outlet reported.
Arizona, a state President Joe Biden narrowly won by just over 10,400 votes in 2020, now poses a significant challenge for the Harris campaign. An August Times/Siena poll found Harris leading by five percentage points, but Latino voters appear to be shifting away from her. Notably, 10 percent of Latino voters remain undecided, however.
Trump is also benefiting from ticket splitting: while Harris lags behind, the Democratic Senate candidate in Arizona, Rep. Reuben Gallego, is currently leading GOP nominee Kari Lake.
“The polls found that voters in this part of the country were worried about their own future and the future of the nation,” the Times noted.
“Whatever road we’re on right now just, to me, does not look like it’s going to end well,” said Tyler Stembridge, 41, a fire captain in Centerville, Ga., who is a Republican. He voted for Trump in 2020 and intends to do so again, he told the outlet.
In Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, about 15 percent of the electorate is still undecided or not firmly committed to a candidate, leaving room for potential shifts in voter sentiment. While this group leaned slightly toward Harris in August, recent trends show a tilt toward Trump.
