New Poll Gives Kari Lake Edge In Competitive Ariz. Senate Race

Former Arizona GOP gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake got some great news in the form of a new poll on Wednesday that showed her leading her Democratic opponent, Rep. Reuben Gallego, for the first time.

AtlasIntel’s October 29 survey showed Lake and Gallego tied, but their most recent data from October 30-31 indicates that Lake has taken a slight lead over her Democratic challenger, securing 48.6 percent of the vote compared to Gallego’s 47.9 percent.

The survey also measured third-party support at 1.4 percent, while an additional 1.5 percent of voters remain undecided.

Lake—who was narrowly defeated by then-Secretary of State Katie Hobbs in the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial race—continues to face an uphill battle.

Gallego has held a consistent lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average for most of the campaign cycle. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted from October 25 to October 29 indicated Gallego’s lead at four percentage points, while a CNN poll conducted from October 21 to 26 found the Democrat ahead by eight points.

An October 26-28 survey from Data Orbital showed a much tighter race, with Lake and Gallego nearly tied.

Overall, as of October 31, Gallego’s lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average is 3.9 percentage points.

AtlasIntel also reported favorable results for former President Trump in Arizona, consistent with his substantial lead in the October 29 poll. In the October 30-31 survey, Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 4.2 percentage points, marking his largest lead among all seven battleground states included in the poll.

Additionally, the survey revealed that Trump is marginally winning over independents in the state, with few Republican voters defecting and nearly equal Democratic voters choosing not to support Harris.

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